Sixty-nine counties now have a positivity rate below 10% as a seven-day average on coronavirus diagnostic tests.
The good news: That’s the highest number since Nov. 2.
The bad news: Counties ideally should be at 5% positivity or less, and there are still 62 counties above that benchmark.
Still, the numbers are headed the right direction and it appears at that point that Michigan avoided a post-holiday surge.
Did Michigan dodge the winter holiday coronavirus surge?
Statewide, Michigan’s seven-day positivity rate is 6.9%. That’s the state’s seven-day average since October. The statewide seven-day average of new cases is now 2,236, down 29% from 3,136 a week ago today.
Below is a closer look at the county-level data, based on the metrics used by the Michigan Department of Heath and Human Services in assessing coronavirus risk levels. The scale used by MDHHS has six levels — “low” plus Levels A-E.
First, a look at the seven-day average positivity rates by county, grouped by the state’s metric.
- Level E (over 20%): None.
- Level D (15-20%): Hillsdale.
- Level C (10-15%): 13 counties, highest to lower — Branch, Wexford, Missaukee, Lenawee, Gogebic, Oceana, Cass, St. Joseph, St. Clair, Newaygo, Tuscola, Crawford and Livingston.
- Level B (7-10%): 30 counties, highest to lowest — Houghton, Clare, Manistee, Shiawassee, Benzie, Alpena, Van Buren, Saginaw, Monroe, Ottawa, Calhoun, Eaton, Lapeer, Mason, Muskegon, Ingham, Macomb, Oscoda, Presque Isle, Kent, Berrien, Wayne, Grand Traverse, Allegan, Huron, Kalamazoo, , Iosco, Bay and Jackson.
- Level A (3-7%): 33 counties — Alcona, Arenac, Osceola, Leelanau, Ionia, Gladwin, Oakland, Barry, Sanilac, Genesee, Clinton, Midland, Kalkaska, Ontonagon, Cheboygan, Montcalm, Lake, Washtenaw, Roscommon, Antrim, Ogemaw, Isabella, Emmet, Otsego, Keweenaw, Gratiot, Montmorency, Charlevoix, Mecosta, Iron, Alger, Menominee, Dickinson and Chippewa.
- Low (under 3%): Six counties — Delta, Luce, Marquette, Mackinac, Baraga and Schoolcraft.
The chart below allows you to look up any county by name to see the seven-day average positivity rate for Jan. 7-13. The chart has been changed to compare the average from the past seven days to the average for the previous week.
The interactive map below shows the seven-day average testing rate by county. You can put your cursor over a county to see the underlying data.
New cases per capita
New daily cases per capita is another metric used by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services to access coronavirus risk.
In this metric — which calculates the average number of new cases per 1 million residents — 61 counties are at Level E, the highest risk level on the MDHHS scale. The cutoff for Level E is 150 cases per day per million residents.
The levels for the other 22 counties:
- Level D (70 to 149 cases per million): Ontonagon, Marquette, Cheboygan, Osceola, Gratiot, Emmet, Menominee, Delta, Montmorency, Oscoda, Roscommon, Crawford, Ogemaw, Presque Isle, Kalkaska, Chippewa, Dickinson and Schoolcraft.
- Level C (40 to 69 cases per million): Baraga.
- Level B (20 to 39 cases per million): Mackinac and Luce.
- Low (below 7 cases per million): Missaukee.
Here is an online database that allows readers to see the number of new coronavirus cases in the past seven days compared to the previous week, as well as the per capita number that adjusts for population. The arrows indicate whether the total number of new cases reported in the last seven days has gone up or down compared to the previous seven days.
The current scores are based on new cases reported Jan. 8-14. The map below is shaded based on the state’s six levels. The arrows indicate whether the total number of new cases reported in the last seven days has gone up or down compared to Jan. 1-7.
Readers can put their cursor over a county to see the underlying data. (Hint: You can drag the map with your cursor to see the entire U.P.)
MDHHS overall score by region
MDHHS has assigned an overall score to each of the state’s MI Start regions, looking at factors such as new cases and deaths per capita, test positivity rates, number of tests administered and emergency department visits for COVID-19 symptoms.
Since Nov. 4, all eight of Michigan’s MI Start regions have been at the highest level the state uses to assess coronavirus risk.
This interactive map shows those eight regions and their current scores. You can put your cursor over a county to see the underlying data.
(The state’s MI Start districts: Region 1 is the Detroit region; Region 2 is Grand Rapids; Region 3, Kalamazoo; Region 4, Saginaw; Region 5, Lansing; Region 6, Traverse City; Region 7, Jackson, and Region 8, the Upper Peninsula.)
Below are online databases that allow readers to look up county-level data for each of the last 30 days.
Cases by day it was reported to the state
First is a chart showing new cases reported to the state each day for the past 30 days. This is based on when a confirmed coronavirus test is reported to the state, which means the patient first became sick days before.
You can call up a chart for any county, and you can put your cursor over a bar to see the date and number of cases.
(In a few instances, a county reported a negative number (decline) in daily new cases, following a retroactive reclassification by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services. In those instances, we subtracted cases from the prior date and put 0 in the reported date.)
The next chart below shows new cases for the past 30 days based on onset of symptoms. In this chart, numbers for the most recent days are incomplete because of the lag time between people getting sick and getting a confirmed coronavirus test result, which can take up to a week or more.
You can call up a chart for any county, and you can put your cursor over a bar to see the date and number of cases.
More localized maps
Below are two maps created by the EpiBayes research group at University of Michigan’s Department of Epidemiology, which has access to sub-county data collected by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services.
The interactive maps break down the state into 10 kilometer hexogons to provide more a more localized look at where coronavirus cases are occurring. You can click here to get to the research project website.
The first map looks at confirmed and probable coronavirus cases in the past week. You can click on a hexagon to see the underlying data.
You can use the triangle button at the upper right of the map to toggle to the second map, which shows total confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths since the start of the pandemic.
Latest daily report
On Saturday, Jan. 16, the state reported 1,932 new cases of coronavirus and 103 new deaths.
The map below shows total confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths since the start of the pandemic. You can put your cursor over a county to see the underlying numbers.
For more statewide data, visit MLive’s coronavirus data page, here. To find a testing site near you, check out the state’s online test finder, here, send an email to COVID19@michigan.gov, or call 888-535-6136 between 8 a.m. and 5 p.m. on weekdays.
For more data on COVID-19 in Michigan, visit https://www.mlive.com/coronavirus/data/.
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