The day after Christmas, as cases of the COVID-19 variant omicron exploded across the country, so did the phone calls at Dr. Greg Poland‘s house.
Family, friends, colleagues and mere acquaintances suspected they or someone they knew had the virus. But they couldn’t find tests or access treatment because so many other people were in the same boat. Hordes of them called Poland, an infectious disease expert and physician for Mayo Clinic, which is based in Rochester, Minn., and has a hospital in Jacksonville.
“My phone started blowing up,” he said during a recent virtual session with reporters.
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Poland, who heads Mayo’s Vaccine Research Group, is one of many experts across the country who are sounding the alarm about the need for more people to be vaccinated against COVID-19. Currently about 62 percent of the U.S. population are fully vaccinated; the rate in Florida is about 64 percent, Duval County about 58 percent.
Omicron, the fourth variant of COVID-19 in the United States, is highly contagious though typically less severe than earlier versions of the virus. But it will not be the last variant to strike the country — unless the vast majority of people get a coronavirus vaccine and booster shot, wear masks and socially distance, the 40-year immunologist and vaccinologist said.
“The hair almost stands up on my neck when I hear people say, oh omicron … is mild. Well, it is if you’re fully vaccinated and bolstered,” he said. “It might be if you’re not. But odds are you’re playing Russian roulette. You may not be that lucky. I’ve seen it over and over again.”
There is no way around it, he said. As long as there is this many people unvaccinated and people aren’t wearing masks, it will continue in one iteration or another.
“At this point, all of your great-great-great-grandchildren will be getting immunized against coronavirus, just as you were immunized against an influenza variant that first showed up in the great 1918 influenza pandemic,” he said. “… We have not been able to stop immunizing against it since.”
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What’s different with this variant is the relatively lower risk of hospitalization, he said, although those numbers are increasing as well. Also, while omicron is “much less serious” than the most recent variant, delta, there is still the potential for severe cases, he said. And it is more contagious than its predecessor.
The vaccine, as well as masking and social distancing, can lessen the spread, he said.
“The virus continues to mutate because we continue to allow it to be highly transmissible and infect lots of people,” Poland said. A variant of omicron that was recently detected in New York City was as “transmissible as omicron and as virulent as delta,” he said. “That would be a very bad actor.”
Mostly unvaccinated patients hospitalized with the virus
Jacksonville-area hospitals reported rapidly rising numbers of patients being admitted with the coronavirus, particularly since the holidays. As of last week, they collectively had about 10 percent of beds open, according to Dr. Chirag Patel, assistant chief medical officer at UF Health Jacksonville.
“The capacity has gotten smaller and smaller and smaller,” he said Wednesday.
The open-bed capacity could evaporate as soon as this week when the current surge is expected to peak, which could lead to staffing and supply shortages. Already, hospitals are shifting staff, such as “deploying” medical personnel from hospital-affiliated medical practices to hospitals.
“They’re … feeling stress but are still able to provide high-quality care,” Patel said. “We have workers continuing to step up, despite the fact that we are exhausted. If the case rate continues to rise, I’m afraid access to care will be limited.”
Fortunately the 2021-22 flu season, though worse than last year when a large segment of the population was staying home, has been relatively “tame,” he said.
But Patel and representatives of other area hospitals urged people to get the coronavirus and flu vaccines to help keep serious illness at bay. Also, they recommended upgrading from cloth masks to the N-95 or KN-95 versions and socially distancing where possible.
“Cloth masks are not going to protect you” from high transmissible viruses because droplets can get through, he said. “All it takes is a loud conversation or laugh. … Droplets can be suspended in air up to three hours.”
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Patel acknowledged that the public might be fatigued by continually evolving recommendations, particularly those from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control Prevention. CDC guidance has changed as more scientific data has become available since the pandemic began in early 2020.
“It’s not because they don’t know what they’re doing. It’s because they are learning more every day,” he said.
The “multi-prong strategy” developed to fight COVID-19 includes vaccines, testing, masking and treatment, but vaccines are the key, according to Dr. Mobeen Rathore, Wolfson Children’s Hospital’s chief of pediatric infectious diseases and immunology and chief of UF Health Jacksonville’s Division of Pediatric Infectious Diseases and Immunology.
“It all starts with the vaccine. Those who are vaccinated are less likely to get serious infections … That’s the foundation,” he said this week on WJCT News 89.9’s First Coast Connect. “That’s what’s going to get us out of this morass.”
Because of the omicron surge, people across Jacksonville last week were scrambling to find tests, not vaccines, leading to long lines at many test sites. But Gov. Ron DeSantis and Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo said they don’t want anyone without COVID-19 symptoms to get tested because of overcrowded sites.
They also urged people who test positive to seek monoclonal antibody treatment at state-sponsored locations.
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Meanwhile, most of the patients hospitalized during the current surge have not received the vaccine.
For instance, as of Friday, Baptist Health’s five Jacksonville-area hospitals had 141 patients with the coronavirus, up from 66 on Dec. 31. About 65 percent of them were not vaccinated.
“In the current surge of COVID-19 cases, we are not only applying what we have learned from prior surges but also examining new data to ensure we stay ahead of the curve,” according to a Baptist statement. “Thus far we have had fewer ICU admissions and decreased demands for oxygen, so we feel confident that we have the equipment and supplies needed to meet surge capacity.”
Also on Friday, Ascension St. Vincent’s reported 87 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 at its three area hospitals, up from 38 a week earlier. About 91 percent of them are unvaccinated.
“We cannot stress enough the importance of getting vaccinated, including receiving booster doses as indicated. We believe the approved COVID-19 vaccines are safe and effective and the benefits of being vaccinated outweigh any identified risks or side effects,” according to an Ascension statement.
Current surge expected to peak soon
Patel said no one can predict with certainty what happens next, but his “best guess” is that COVID-19 is here to stay.
“Maybe not to this degree,” he said. “I think omicron is going to peak rapidly in the next two weeks.”
Then case numbers will drop, likely followed by a “quiet period” of several months,” he said. Patel noted that COVID-19 so far has had winter surges and summer surges, so he would not be surprised if cases spiked again this summer.
“Until we can come up with a way to stem outbreaks, we all have to make tough choices” to protect ourselves and each other,” he said.
Have a COVID-19 story to tell? Contact Beth Reese Cravey at bcravey@jacksonville.com or (904) 359-4109.
COVID-19 TESTING AND VACCINATIONS
To search testing locations across Florida, go to floridahealthcovid19.gov/testing-sites. Also, the city of Jacksonville website provides a list of testing sites at jaxready.com/SpecialPages/virus/COVID-19-Testing-Information. Availability is subject to change.
To search vaccine locations, go to vaccines.gov or floridahealthcovid19.gov/vaccines/vaccine-locator.