Louisiana bucking latest coronavirus trends as new wave slams US; experts still very concerned – NOLA.com

The U.S. is again in the midst of a record-breaking wave of coronavirus, its third of the year, with outbreaks in the Midwest pushing the country’s daily count of new cases above 120,000.

But Louisiana appears to be bucking the trend. At least for now.

There are no firm theories on why Louisiana, the only state with cases spiking at the same time as the national numbers in the spring and summer, has seen only a slow rise this time. Adherence to mask-wearing and social distancing guidelines, and the still-warm fall temperatures in the state, might be factors. Alternatively, some worry that small increases in new cases and hospitalizations might portend the state is moving toward another outbreak, one concealed by a reduction in testing.

Regardless of whether Louisiana’s relatively stable position is real or a mirage, experts advise residents need to continue taking precautions.

“You have to remember that there are hundreds of cases occurring every day in Louisiana. There always is a risk that you get complacent and that the percent positivity starts to rise and you get that increased transmission again,” said Dr. Amesh Adalja, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in Baltimore.

On Friday the U.S. logged almost 133,000 new coronavirus cases, the third consecutive day it had set a new record since the start of the pandemic in the spring. The country also marked the fourth consecutive day of 1,000 deaths, the most fatal stretch since late August. The latest outbreak has pushed 27 states above their previous seven-day records, according to The New York Times.

But things have remained relatively stable in Louisiana. While the 4,438 new cases added to the state’s total over the past week represents the largest increase since mid-September, it is only a 12% increase over the daily statewide average over the past two months.

“In comparison, we’re looking pretty darn good, but it still makes me very concerned because I hear from people all over the state that mask wearing is really hit and miss and gatherings are occurring and extracurriculars associated with schools,” said Susan Hassig, an epidemiologist at Tulane University. “All those things are driving clusters of cases, and people are proving to be apparently not so eager to be tested anymore.”

While the state overall is not looking particularly worse than it has in recent months, there are some areas that are cause for concern. The area around Shreveport, which never saw its numbers fall quite as much as other areas of the state, has seen cases rise rapidly — with its seven-day total jumping to over 1,000 cases, an increase of more than 40% over the last week.

The Lafayette area has seen even more dramatic increases, with cases nearly doubling over the last week. However, its overall count of 640 cases over 7 days remains relatively low.

In New Orleans, Tulane University President Michael Fitts sent out an email to students and employees Friday saying the school was adding in new restrictions and testing requirements after seeing an increase in cases that officials attributed to Hurricane Zeta and Halloween celebrations. The school reported 214 positive cases last week, a steep increase after weeks in which new case counts never rose to the double digits.

Louisiana Department of Health spokesperson Kevin Litten said in an emailed statement that officials continue to monitor the situation closely and have been particularly troubled by rising percent positivity in northeast Louisiana and outbreaks at 42 religious events that have resulted in 225 new cases. The department has also been concerned that people may be letting their guard down and not taking precautions in small settings with friends or family.

“it’s human behavior to subconsciously think your friends and loved ones haven’t been exposed to the virus,” Litten said. “But this of course is not true. It’s important that we keep this in mind as we are going into the holiday season. It does not mean we cannot spend time with our loved ones; it just means we need to get a little creative so we can all stay safe.”

An uptick in Louisiana has been widely expected since mid-September, when Gov. John Bel Edwards announced he was easing some restrictions and moving into Phase 3 of the state’s reopening plan. In New Orleans, which has maintained stricter rules than the state throughout the pandemic, Mayor LaToya Cantrell began loosening her restrictions about two weeks later.

In earlier phases of the pandemic, both in Louisiana and across the world, reducing restrictions has been accompanied by an increase in the virus’ spread. And in Louisiana, those looser restrictions came alongside the start of in-person learning at schools and colleges, another change that was expected to lead to increased spread.

“There’s not an explanation,” said Jeff Asher of AH Datalytics, who has been tracking the pandemic in the state. “I’ve been sitting here expecting it.”

One explanation put forward by Adalja is that Louisiana’s residents have taken to heart the experience of the first two waves of the pandemic. “That’s got the population a little more attuned to the risks, and a lot of what happens in an outbreak in a given area has to do with people’s behavior,” he said.

The climate might also be playing a role. The current surges are happening largely in states where cold weather has already taken hold, tamping down opportunities for outdoor activities that are seen as less likely than indoor gatherings to spread the virus.

That raises concerns about what happens when the weather shifts in Louisiana, as do the coming holidays that might see families assembling for celebrations, Hassig said.

“It’s not just strangers. It’s those [who] are dear to us and .. are at risk and potentially risky for us,” she said. “Frankly, that’s one of the things I’ve been thinking about: If we get a lot of asymptomatic spread in people below 40, when they do gather with their family – which will include older generations – that’s when I’m concerned we’re going to see more impact.”

Then there’s the possibility that the current coronavirus numbers are something of a mirage. Testing has been disrupted multiple times in recent months as hurricanes Laura, Delta and Zeta have rolled through the state. Each storm was accompanied by a drop in testing and in the number of new infections reported.

That comes on top of a reluctance in some areas of the state to get tested in the first place, Hassig said.

Altogether, that could mean that the virus is still spreading but is not showing up in the official statistics, she said. 

Another explanation, which has generated less agreement, is the effect of the previous waves on the susceptibility of Louisiana’s population. With almost 187,700 cases confirmed, Louisiana has among the highest per capita rates in the country and the number of undiagnosed infections might be several times higher than that.

That would fall far short of the thresholds needed for any kind of herd immunity, but it might act to slow the spread of the disease among people such as essential workers who regularly interact with others, Asher said.

“It might just be having a harder time spreading here than elsewhere,” he said.

Hassig, however, said she was skeptical that enough people had been infected to affect the virus’ transmission potential.

“I don’t think that’s enough to substantially change the dynamic,” she said.

Editor’s note: This story was updated on Nov. 8, 2020, to include a statement from the Louisiana Department of Health.