The Oregon Health Authority announced 418 new suspected or confirmed cases and six new deaths linked to COVID-19 on Friday as new modeling from the state showed that, without more focused efforts to limit the spread, cases are likely to increase dramatically as the weather changes.
Dr. Dean Sidelinger, the state epidemiologist and state health officer, outlined three scenarios. In the most optimistic, a 10% drop in transmission would result in roughly 290 daily reported cases and hospitalizations would fall to 20 per day. If transmission stays at current levels, Sidelinger said, daily reported cases would rise to roughly 570 per day and an estimated 40 people per day would require hospitalization.
In the most dire scenario, a 5% increase in transmission could increase daily reported cases to more than 700 with 48 hospitalizations per day.
And those case counts don’t show the full picture; those are only the numbers that would be identified through testing and reported by the state each day. If transmission rates stay at current levels, true number of daily infections could jump from 1,300, the estimated number of cases today, to 2,200, according to the modeling.
To avoid that, Sidelinger urged Oregonians to practice the common sense measures recommended to curtail the spread of the virus, especially as temperatures fall and more people spend time inside.
“The virus is extraordinarily contagious and as the weather turns and we head indoors it’ll be more important than ever to practice preventive measures,” he said, noting that wearing masks, practicing social distancing, frequent hand washing and only gathering in small groups are the best ways to prevent the virus from spreading.
“The numbers are stark and show why we must take this virus so seriously,” he said.
Where the new cases are by county: Benton (2), Clackamas (45), Columbia (3), Coos (5), Crook (1), Curry (1), Deschutes (18), Douglas (5), Jackson (18), Jefferson (3), Klamath (2), Lane (53), Linn (12), Malheur (17), Marion (35), Morrow (5), Multnomah (86), Polk (13), Tillamook (3), Umatilla (17), Wasco (2), Washington (58) and Yamhill (14).
New fatalities: The 612th fatality is a 50-year-old Jefferson County man with underlying medical conditions. He tested positive Oct. 6 and died Oct. 14 at his residence.
The 613th fatality is an 82-year-old Washington County man with underlying medical conditions. He tested positive Oct. 5 and died Oct. 12 at Providence St. Vincent Medical Center.
The 614th fatality is an 88-year-old Curry County woman with underlying medical conditions. She tested positive Aug. 8 and died Oct. 13. Officials were working to confirm where she died.
The 615th fatality is a 65-year-old Washington County woman with underlying medical conditions. She tested positive Aug. 7 and died Sept. 23 at Providence Portland Medical Center.
The 616th fatality is a 94-year-old Hood River County woman with underlying medical conditions. She tested positive Oct. 8 and died Oct. 14. Officials were working to confirm where she died.
The 617th fatality is an 81-year-old Multnomah County man with underlying medical conditions. He tested positive Sept. 6 and died Oct. 2 at his residence.
The prevalence of infections: State officials reported 386 new confirmed infections out of 5,889 people tested, equaling a 6.6% positivity rate, a jump of two points over Thursday’s rate.
Who got infected: New confirmed or presumed infections grew among the following age groups: 0-9 (19); 10-19 (44); 20-29 (114); 30-39 (78); 40-49 (58); 50-59 (41); 60-69 (31); 70-79 (17); 80 and older (7).
Who’s in the hospital: The state reported 149 Oregonians with confirmed coronavirus infections were currently in the hospital Friday. Oregon remains well below its capacity, with hundreds of hospital beds and ventilators available.
Since it began: Oregon has reported 38,935 confirmed or presumed infections and 617 deaths, among the lowest totals in the nation. To date, 773,225 Oregonians have been tested.
— Kale Williams; kwilliams@oregonian.com; 503-294-4048; @sfkale